The predicted rainfall amount over the country is predicted very likely to be above average to likely average rainfall for the period of July-August-September (JAS) over The Gambia.
The interpretation of that means the country’s average is expected to have rainfall quantity of equal to or more than 1000mm in the western sector of the country.
Amount in the range of 750 - 950mm are likely over the rest of the country. The predicted 2024 rainfall values would therefore be above normal over large areas of the country.
The latest figures indicate a 45% chance of above normal rainfall, 35% chance of near-normal rainfall and 20% chance for below normal rainfall.
Put in simpler terms, this means that the chance of having above normal rainfall is higher than the chance of having normal rainfall.
In an agrarian economy like in The Gambia, where rain fed-agriculture is predominant, rainfall onset for the commencement of farming season is crucial. It affects establishment of crops, agricultural production and subsequently, national economies.
Failure in the timely establishment of rainfall onset usually affects farmers. It is essential that, after a given date, the rain will become fairly continuous and sufficient to provide adequate soil moisture for and after planting is maintained as the season advances for successful establishment of crops.
In 2024, The Gambia is expected to see rainfall onset between 09th and 15th June as illustrated in figure 2 below. These dates are expected to be generally early by up to 2 weeks over large parts of the country.
Judicious use of these predictions in planning agricultural activities will lead to safe sowing and enhanced crop and food production. This information should be widely available to extension services and agencies that have the responsibility of advising farmers on appropriate time of planting and varieties to be planted
